Whats the probability this game will actually see beta and a release?
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I have been let down over a few games that were hyped and i was ready for but ultimately were shut down for no apparent reasons. One such being EQ Next. What are the chances that this one actually succeeds? Is Dynamight studios having any issues or are they running strong with this game at this time? Please let me know so that I might feel a little better investing time and resource. Thank you.
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RIP EQ Next. RIP Chronicles of Elyria.
Both of these games promised a lot of things and couldn't live up to them. And EQ Next was amazing fun. Even though it never saw the light of day I greatly enjoyed playing in the little creator thing they gave us.
Fractured is taking a different course. They aren't exactly reinventing the wheel. Instead they are taking something we have seen before and twisting it into something new and different. Instead of a Pve isometric, or a pure pvp isometric, or a isometric that tries to balance the two we are getting all three. We a nice touch of claiming land and fighting over territories mixed in. There is something for everyone and more importantly they are doing it in a practical way.
The core of the game is already there. You can jump into the Alpha test right now to get a taste if you wanted. Or you could wait till later. I am pretty hyped about the next test in June since it will have the city mechanics in it.
I don't see any reasons we wouldn't see a beta and a release. They are pushing forward greatly with each Alpha test I have been a part of. The progress is easy to see, and easy to appreciate in game.
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@Rokesh - I know it's not a great time for anyone to be throwing $$ away, so your question is an important one! But if there's one thing COVID has taught us ALL, it's that s**t we can't even imagine can happen out of nowhere, so anyone claiming to have a crystal ball is a shaky prospect.
I will say that I've already gotten my personal investment's worth of fun out of this game - I bought in at 'beta' level but I have been able to play in alphas by winning A-keys drawn for folks who promote the game in my social networks. Each test has made big steps forward! The current alpha is basic, but already fun to play, and it's going to get way better for the next test when cities and talent trees go live.
Not to mention the value of the cool global community forming on this forum... strangely, when they took out the p2w aspect, a lot of the asshats common in forum settings found something else to do... none of the long-winded privileged trolls I'd learned to filter out to avoid their whining in the forum about minor game changes that messed up something they'd put major bucks into.
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As someone who was deeply pledged into CoE, (I was know as Pteroguin) I think some of the things that provide hope to me for Fractured are;
No NDA - for true transparency
Reaching milestones
Minimalistic scope creep
Bugs that are reported get addressed quickly
A comprehensive and achievable vision
Responsive developersAt the end of the day I pledged as a backup/training area for my CoE community but time and time again Prometheus and crew show me why I should of pledged more here and less in CoE.
Ultimately - if one should pledge is a deeply personal question. I think they’re doing a great job and will achieve many if not all of their objectives.
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From seeing the development from phase to phase, their open communication and roadmaps, and their attention to the community and fixing bugs; it doesn't feel like they're slowing down any time soon. These are all good signs!
If this does fail, I think @Prometheus will have broken my heart harder than my wallet (Immortal pledge.)
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3.5% chance..... its already fully backed by players and separate sponsors, it has a good dev team.
If you want a non biased answer this is probably not the right forum to ask on.
You could always back later if you are unsure
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@Xzoviac said in Whats the probability this game will actually see beta and a release?:
If you want a non biased answer this is probably not the right forum to ask on.
This pretty much sums it up. People who visit the forum frequently at this point do so because they believe in the project.
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ive spent money so i hope so but the lead guy seems real cool if you look for his live talks with oxfurd the most recent one he talks about it i like his views and he talks about such things in a grounded way that is pleasing you should go watch
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I was the one of first players that exposed CoE for what it really is (their devs, for what their intentions really were) very early on.
I was fought by white knights, and was even banned from CoE forums for that.
I can say I enjoyed watching CoE sails burn while their ship was sinking, sipping a nice glass of wine while watching.
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50 chance it'll release.
50 chance it won't.
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@Jetah said in Whats the probability this game will actually see beta and a release?:
50 chance it'll release.
50 chance it won't.
I'm not sure that's quite accurate...just because it's yes or no doesn't mean they have equal value in 50/50.
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And not everything is a factor of chance.
85% is the devs development effort (so not a chance, but depending purely on how much devs pull it off), and 15% could go towards other factors (like managing to acquire a GOOD publisher, and similar, that is also not all pure chance, but also majorly devs negotiation efforts, lets say 10%). Lets say 5% is chance.
Sure you have a minor 5% of chance too, depending on various circumstances, global economy and maybe some other factors.
So you have formula (devs effort being on scale from 0% to 95%):
It will release -> "devs effort" + 2.5%
It will not release -> 100 - "devs effort" - 2.5%... and so far devs effort is pretty damn high.
We are talking about chance of "game releasing" above.
"Game succeeding after release" is another formula -> quality of publisher (and their publishing policy) becomes a bit more important there, but still, the design of a game (developers base effort) remains a major factor.
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@Manaia said in Whats the probability this game will actually see beta and a release?:
@Jetah said in Whats the probability this game will actually see beta and a release?:
50 chance it'll release.
50 chance it won't.
I'm not sure that's quite accurate...just because it's yes or no doesn't mean they have equal value in 50/50.
False. It will or will not happen. It's 50/50.
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@Rokesh Even Fractured is few months behind the original schedule, Dynymight Studio's development pace has been quite good. So I would say we are going to see Beta and without facing any fundamental problems also the release.
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@Jetah said in Whats the probability this game will actually see beta and a release?:
@Manaia said in Whats the probability this game will actually see beta and a release?:
@Jetah said in Whats the probability this game will actually see beta and a release?:
50 chance it'll release.
50 chance it won't.
I'm not sure that's quite accurate...just because it's yes or no doesn't mean they have equal value in 50/50.
False. It will or will not happen. It's 50/50.
Two outcomes doesn't mean it's a 50/50 though.
A 99/1 STILL has two outcomes. That's like saying you have a 50/50 chance of dying today because you're either alive or dead Jesus Christ, how people live longer than a month is a statistical anomaly at a 50/50 rate!
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@Savitr said in Whats the probability this game will actually see beta and a release?:
As someone who was deeply pledged into CoE, (I was know as Pteroguin) I think some of the things that provide hope to me for Fractured are;
No NDA - for true transparency
Reaching milestones
Minimalistic scope creep
Bugs that are reported get addressed quickly
A comprehensive and achievable vision
Responsive developersAt the end of the day I pledged as a backup/training area for my CoE community but time and time again Prometheus and crew show me why I should of pledged more here and less in CoE.
Ultimately - if one should pledge is a deeply personal question. I think they’re doing a great job and will achieve many if not all of their objectives.
+1. I've been in enough Alpha's to know what looks possible and what's a pipe dream. So far the dev's here seem to keep things on a realistic level. That being said, things happen. The best laid plans can turn into the worst of disasters sometimes. It's like investing in new stocks...you have to take a look at what they plan, what they have done, and how they are progressing, and then determine if the risk is worth it for you.
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What if... you get the game now and just keep in in the box. In that case it can be both released and not released in the same time.
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@Rokesh said in Whats the probability this game will actually see beta and a release?:
I have been let down over a few games that were hyped and i was ready for but ultimately were shut down for no apparent reasons. One such being EQ Next. What are the chances that this one actually succeeds? Is Dynamight studios having any issues or are they running strong with this game at this time? Please let me know so that I might feel a little better investing time and resource. Thank you.
Ugh.
These people (Developers) have been true to their word. They do podcasts and alpha releases and talk with the community. They have stopped long ago now taking funding for this game. They are completely on the level. Judge each situation based upon it's own merit's and not of those in the past. It is not fair to them. That's like saying you got ripped off by a car salesman and so now you refuse to drive. Don't let it make you jaded.
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Who knows what evil lies within the hearts of men? The Shadow knows!
The game is progressing and the devs are engaged with the community. But unexpected things can happen. Like a global pandemic. Who knew we'd have one of those? The WHO didn't.
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One thing I've seen from kickstarting computer games as opposed to board games is the difference in wait times to receive them is alot longer lol. Hopefully down the road it releases. Life is Feudal was stalled in alpha so long that they lost alot of players just from boredom and frustration.
